· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Muzinga vs Kayanza United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Muzinga and 1.58 for Kayanza United, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Kayanza United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muzinga home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kayanza United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Muzinga and 1.58 for Kayanza United, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Muzinga
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musongati · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Panthere Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Messager Ngozi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Never Give Up Academy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Farmers FC · 4-2 (W)
Kayanza United
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rukinzo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Royal Vision · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ngozi City · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Muzinga 0-0 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
- 2025-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · Muzinga 1-1 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
- 2021-01-09T13:00:00.000Z · Muzinga 1-4 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
- 2020-12-19T11:30:00.000Z · Muzinga 0-1 Kayanza United (Ligue A)
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Musongati | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Vital'O | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Flambeau du Centre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Never Give Up Academy | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Young Star | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.