Muzinga vs Never Give Up Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Muzinga and 0.50 for Never Give Up Academy, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Muzinga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Muzinga win

60.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Muzinga home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muzinga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 27% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Muzinga and 0.50 for Never Give Up Academy, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 30%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.

Match result (1X2)

Muzinga win60%

Draw27%

Never Give Up Academy win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

1–020.8%
2–014.8%
0–014.6%
1–110.4%
2–17.4%

Recent form

Muzinga

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musongati · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Panthere Noir · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Messager Ngozi · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Never Give Up Academy · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Green Farmers FC · 4-2 (W)

Never Give Up Academy

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musongati · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-28T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Messager Ngozi · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Star · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Muzinga · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Royal Vision	9	6	3	0	19	21
2	Muzinga	9	5	3	1	6	18
3	Rukinzo	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Le Messager Ngozi	6	4	1	1	2	13
5	Olympic Star	7	3	3	1	3	12
6	Aigle Noir	8	3	3	2	2	12
7	Ngozi City	8	4	0	4	-2	12
8	Bumamuru	8	3	1	4	1	10
9	Musongati	8	3	1	4	-1	10
10	Vital'O	7	2	3	2	-5	9
11	Inter Star	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Flambeau du Centre	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Never Give Up Academy	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Kayanza United	8	0	5	3	-6	5
15	Young Star	8	1	2	5	-15	5
16	Panthere Noir	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Muzinga win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.