MVV vs Almere City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for MVV and 1.65 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Almere City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Almere City FC win

49.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

MVV home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almere City FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Almere City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for MVV and 1.65 for Almere City FC, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

MVV win27%

Draw24%

Almere City FC win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–110.0%
1–29.5%
0–28.3%
1–07.0%

Recent form

MVV

2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-6 (L)
2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)

Almere City FC

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heracles · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs MVV · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eerste Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	7	1	3	12	22
4	Emmen	11	7	1	3	5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Roda	11	5	4	2	3	19
7	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	1	17
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	5	16
9	MVV	11	5	1	5	-11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	3	6	2	4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	4	2	5	4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	FC OSS	11	4	0	7	-1	12
15	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Jong Ajax	11	3	2	6	-11	11
17	De Graafschap	11	3	2	6	-11	11
18	Dordrecht	11	3	2	6	-13	11
19	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Jong Utrecht	11	2	1	8	-8	7
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-7	7
1	Heracles	1	1	0	0	4	3
2	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	2	3
3	Den Bosch	1	1	0	0	1	3
4	Dordrecht	1	1	0	0	1	3
5	Emmen	1	1	0	0	1	3
6	Roda	1	1	0	0	1	3
7	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	1	3
8	Jong Ajax	1	1	0	0	1	3
9	VVV Venlo	1	0	1	0	0	1
10	FC Volendam	1	0	1	0	0	1
11	Waalwijk	1	0	1	0	0	1
12	Jong AZ	1	0	1	0	0	1
13	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Almere City FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Jong PSV U21	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Jong Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	MVV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Almere City FC win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.