De Geusselt · Referee R. Sturm · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
MVV vs Jong Utrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for MVV and 1.56 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives MVV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MVV win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
MVV home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jong Utrecht away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MVV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for MVV and 1.56 for Jong Utrecht, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
MVV
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)
Jong Utrecht
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs VVV Venlo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Ajax · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NAC Breda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MVV win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.