· Analysis updated 18:30 UTC
Mwatate United vs Mombasa Elite Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Mwatate United and 1.30 for Mombasa Elite, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Mombasa Elite the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mombasa Elite win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mwatate United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mombasa Elite to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Mwatate United and 1.30 for Mombasa Elite, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Mwatate United
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Equity Bank · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 3K · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs MCF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naivas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 0-1 (L)
Mombasa Elite
- 2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mara Sugar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Mwatate United 0-1 Mombasa Elite (Super League)
- 2025-12-17T10:00:00.000Z · Mwatate United 0-3 Mombasa Elite (Super League)
- 2023-06-28T12:00:00.000Z · Mwatate United 2-0 Mombasa Elite (Super League)
- 2023-03-15T12:00:00.000Z · Mwatate United 1-2 Mombasa Elite (Super League)
- 2022-06-12T00:00:00.000Z · Mwatate United 3-1 Mombasa Elite (Super League)
- 2022-03-06T00:00:00.000Z · Mwatate United 0-1 Mombasa Elite (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sofapaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nairobi City Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kariobangi Sharks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Nzoia Sugar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Naivas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kibera Black Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Talanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kisumu All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Fortune Sacco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Soy United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Equity Bank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Luanda Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | MOFA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Kibera Soccer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Kabati Youth FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Gucha Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Mfalme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Kiminini Combined | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | BB FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Spitfire FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mombasa Elite win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.