Thuwunna Stadium · Referee A. Baynazarov · Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Myanmar vs Laos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Myanmar and 1.19 for Laos, a combined total of 5.69. That distribution gives Myanmar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Myanmar win
88.5% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Myanmar home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Laos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.9%
- 5–16.2%
- 3–16.1%
- 4–05.8%
- 5–05.2%
Recent form
Myanmar
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Laos · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-07-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines · 4-1 (W)
Laos
- 2026-09-27T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Hong Kong · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-04T10:00:00.000Z · Myanmar 7-2 Laos (ASEAN Championship)
- 2024-12-18T10:30:00.000Z · Myanmar 3-2 Laos (ASEAN Championship)
- 2022-12-30T10:00:00.000Z · Myanmar 2-2 Laos (AFF Championship)
- 2018-11-16T12:30:00.000Z · Myanmar 3-1 Laos (AFF Championship)
- 2015-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · Myanmar 3-1 Laos (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2015-06-11T12:00:00.000Z · Myanmar 2-2 Laos (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2014-10-20T10:00:00.000Z · Myanmar 2-1 Laos (AFF Championship)
ASEAN Championship table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Myanmar win, at 88.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.