ALPI Arena Naesby · Analysis updated 04:51 UTC
Næsby vs FC Helsingor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Næsby and 1.43 for FC Helsingor, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Næsby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Næsby home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Helsingor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Næsby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Næsby and 1.43 for FC Helsingor, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Næsby
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ringsted · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Helsingor · 1-1 (D)
FC Helsingor
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ishøj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Aarhus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Holbæk B&I · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Næsby | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Sundby | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | ASA Aarhus | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 9 | Ishøj | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 15 |
| 10 | Frem | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Holstebro | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 13 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.