ALPI Arena Naesby · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Næsby vs Holstebro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Næsby and 1.48 for Holstebro, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Næsby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Næsby win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Næsby home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Holstebro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Næsby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Næsby and 1.48 for Holstebro, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Næsby
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ringsted · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Helsingor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs AC Horsens · 2-3 (L)
Holstebro
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Næsby · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ishøj · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Frem · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Næsby | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Holstebro | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 9 | Frem | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Ishøj | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 11 | Sundby | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Næsby win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.