· Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
N'Zidane vs AC Douane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for N'Zidane and 1.13 for AC Douane, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives N'Zidane the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
N'Zidane home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AC Douane away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates N'Zidane to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for N'Zidane and 1.13 for AC Douane, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
N'Zidane
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Nouakchott King's · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tevragh-Zeïne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AC Douane · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ksar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tevragh-Zeïne · 4-1 (W)
AC Douane
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gendrim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hafia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hafia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs N'Zidane · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Gendrim · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T16:30:00.000Z · N'Zidane 3-0 AC Douane (Premier League)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · N'Zidane 1-0 AC Douane (Premier League)
- 2025-04-13T17:00:00.000Z · N'Zidane 1-2 AC Douane (Premier League)
- 2024-12-08T16:00:00.000Z · N'Zidane 3-5 AC Douane (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N'Zidane | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Police | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Pompiers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Gendrim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Armée | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | SNIM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Chemal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nouadhibou | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Nouakchott Academie | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Tevragh-Zeïne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Nouakchott King's | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Kaédi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Kédia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | AC Douane | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.