· Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.37 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives NAC Breda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NAC Breda win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NAC Breda home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NAC Breda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for NAC Breda and 1.37 for FC Eindhoven, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–06.8%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
NAC Breda
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitesse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-3 (L)
FC Eindhoven
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NAC Breda win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.