Rat Verlegh Stadion · Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
NAC Breda vs MVV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.87 for MVV, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives NAC Breda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NAC Breda win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NAC Breda home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MVV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 48.2% vs market 41.1%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.00 | 31.3% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.2% | 13.3% | 7.52 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.00 | 18.5% | 18.5% | 5.41 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.35 | 68.4% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 81.7% | 81.5% | 1.23 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.0% | 86.7% | 1.15 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
NAC Breda
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitesse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-3 (L)
MVV
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-03-29T19:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 1-2 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-11-19T15:45:00.000Z · NAC Breda 4-1 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 4-1 MVV (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 1-0 MVV (Eredivisie)
- 2023-03-10T19:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 4-1 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 1-3 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-03-04T19:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 2-1 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2021-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 3-0 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2021-05-07T18:00:00.000Z · NAC Breda 2-0 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
- 2020-11-06T17:45:00.000Z · NAC Breda 4-1 MVV (Eerste Divisie)
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NAC Breda win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.