Rat Verlegh Stadion · Referee E. van der Vaart · Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
NAC Breda W vs Ajax W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for NAC Breda W and 1.97 for Ajax W, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Ajax W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax W win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NAC Breda W home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ajax W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 16% / 21% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for NAC Breda W and 1.97 for Ajax W, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.4%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–37.4%
Recent form
NAC Breda W
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:45:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Hera United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior W · 0-2 (L)
Ajax W
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 21 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | De Graafschap W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ W | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax W win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.