· Analysis updated 05:22 UTC
Nação U20 vs Concórdia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Nação U20 and 1.42 for Concórdia U20, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Nação U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nação U20 win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Concórdia U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nação U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Nação U20 and 1.42 for Concórdia U20, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Nação U20
Concórdia U20
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Avaí U20 · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra SC U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Catarinense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avaí U20 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Barra SC U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Criciuma U20 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Chapecoense U20 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 5 | Figueirense U20 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Nação U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Concórdia U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Joinville U20 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 9 | Carlos Renaux U20 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 10 | Brusque U20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nação U20 win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.