· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Nação vs Blumenau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nação and 1.15 for Blumenau, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Nação the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nação home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blumenau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nação to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Nação and 1.15 for Blumenau, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Nação
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Joinville · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hercílio Luz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 2-0 (W)
Blumenau
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Joinville · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Santa Catarina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barra | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Nação | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.