· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Nação vs Caravaggio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Nação and 1.90 for Caravaggio, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Caravaggio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caravaggio win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nação home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caravaggio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.7%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Nação
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercílio Luz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 3-3 (D)
Caravaggio
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus SC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercílio Luz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Tubarao · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraguá · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T20:00:00.000Z · Nação 2-2 Caravaggio (Catarinense - 2)
- 2026-05-27T22:00:00.000Z · Nação 1-4 Caravaggio (Catarinense - 2)
- 2023-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · Nação 1-0 Caravaggio (Catarinense - 2)
- 2023-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · Nação 0-1 Caravaggio (Catarinense - 2)
- 2023-07-16T18:00:00.000Z · Nação 3-3 Caravaggio (Catarinense - 2)
Catarinense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caravaggio win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.