· Analysis updated 06:51 UTC
Nação vs Santa Catarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Nação and 1.63 for Santa Catarina, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Santa Catarina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Catarina win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nação home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santa Catarina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Catarina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Nação and 1.63 for Santa Catarina, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
Nação
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Joinville · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Figueirense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Hercílio Luz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 2-0 (W)
Santa Catarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Jose · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · Nação 2-2 Santa Catarina (Copa Santa Catarina)
- 2023-06-11T18:00:00.000Z · Nação 1-1 Santa Catarina (Catarinense - 2)
Copa Santa Catarina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barra | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Nação | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Catarina win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.