Arena da Amazonia · Analysis updated 04:47 UTC
Nacional AM vs Porto Velho Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Nacional AM and 1.00 for Porto Velho, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Nacional AM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional AM win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional AM home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Porto Velho away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional AM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Nacional AM and 1.00 for Porto Velho, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Nacional AM
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs CSA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z · H vs CSA · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ABC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ABC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Iguatu · 1-1 (D)
Porto Velho
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gama · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Raimundo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Raimundo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Humaitá · 13-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional AM win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.