Estadio Arsenio Erico · Analysis updated 06:59 UTC
Nacional Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.58 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nacional Asuncion win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional Asuncion home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.0%
- 2–014.0%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 2026-10-18T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T21:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 3-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-03-22T21:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 0-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-01-24T21:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2020-10-25T21:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 1-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2020-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 2-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2020-02-08T21:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 1-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2019-12-09T22:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 4-2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2019-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 3-0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2019-04-04T22:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 3-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2019-02-03T21:45:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 0-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Apertura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Asuncion win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.