Estadio Arsenio Erico · Referee M. D. de Vivar · Analysis updated 06:57 UTC
Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.57 for Deportivo Recoleta, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional Asuncion win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional Asuncion home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Recoleta away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional Asuncion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 18% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.57 for Deportivo Recoleta, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.3%
- 1–014.8%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
Deportivo Recoleta
- 2026-10-24T22:30:00.000Z · A vs 2 de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Asuncion win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.