Estadio Arsenio Erico · Referee M. D. de Vivar · Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion and 1.05 for Libertad Asuncion, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Nacional Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional Asuncion home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Libertad Asuncion away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Nacional Asuncion
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T22:20:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
Libertad Asuncion
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fernando De La Mora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs 2 de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 3-0 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2026-05-24T20:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2026-03-18T23:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 1-2 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 3-1 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-07-19T19:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 1-0 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2025-04-11T21:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 0-1 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2025-01-29T23:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 0-3 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Apertura)
- 2024-12-06T22:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 0-1 Libertad Asuncion (Copa Paraguay)
- 2024-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
- 2024-07-28T22:30:00.000Z · Nacional Asuncion 2-1 Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional - Clausura)
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.