· Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Nacional SP vs ECUS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.37 expected goals for Nacional SP and 1.02 for ECUS, a combined total of 1.39. That distribution gives ECUS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ECUS win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
0.37 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacional SP home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ECUS away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ECUS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 13% / 35% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.37 goals for Nacional SP and 1.02 for ECUS, a combined 1.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–125.3%
- 0–024.9%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–09.3%
Recent form
Nacional SP
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter de Bebedouro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-28T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Barretos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs ECUS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Caieiras · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs AEA · 3-2 (W)
ECUS
- 2026-04-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Joseense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC Lemense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional SP · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AEA · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Caieiras · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - A4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter de Bebedouro | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 2 | Penapolense | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | São Caetano | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 29 |
| 4 | Grêmio Sãocarlense | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 5 | Barretos | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| 6 | Taquaritinga | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Joseense | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | ECUS | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | EC Lemense | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 10 | Comercial | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Tanabi | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Jabaquara | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Vocem | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Colorado Caieiras | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Nacional SP | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -15 | 8 |
| 16 | AEA | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -31 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ECUS win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.