Nacional vs Leixoes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Nacional and 3.50 for Leixoes, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Leixoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Leixoes win

83.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 3.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nacional home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leixoes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nacional win7%

Draw10%

Leixoes win83%

Double chance 1X

17%

Double chance 12

90%

Double chance X2

93%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

0–37.9%
1–37.9%
0–46.9%
1–46.9%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Nacional

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-2 (L)

Leixoes

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto B · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portimonense · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · Nacional 3-3 Leixoes (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-02-28T20:15:00.000Z · Nacional 1-1 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2023-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · Nacional 3-1 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2023-02-19T11:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-2 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2022-08-28T10:00:00.000Z · Nacional 0-3 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2022-04-30T14:30:00.000Z · Nacional 1-0 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2021-12-18T15:30:00.000Z · Nacional 2-0 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2020-12-23T20:00:00.000Z · Nacional 3-1 Leixoes (Taça de Portugal)
2020-02-02T11:15:00.000Z · Nacional 1-0 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)
2019-08-18T15:00:00.000Z · Nacional 1-1 Leixoes (Segunda Liga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leixoes win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.