· Analysis updated 11:43 UTC
Nacka Iliria vs Lindo FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nacka Iliria and 2.08 for Lindo FF, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Lindo FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lindo FF win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacka Iliria home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lindo FF away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lindo FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 19% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Nacka Iliria and 2.08 for Lindo FF, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Nacka Iliria
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syrianska FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haninge · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlslund · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fittja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rågsved · 1-0 (W)
Lindo FF
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Syrianska FC · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eker Örebro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Forward · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rågsved · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyköping · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Södra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farsta | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 2 | Sleipner | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 51 |
| 3 | Nyköping | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 46 |
| 4 | Forward | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 45 |
| 5 | Rågsved | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Haninge | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Smedby | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 36 |
| 8 | Fittja | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Örebro Syrianska | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 34 |
| 10 | Karlslund | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Nacka Iliria | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | Syrianska FC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -17 | 26 |
| 13 | Lindo FF | 26 | 6 | 2 | 18 | -20 | 20 |
| 14 | Eker Örebro | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -43 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lindo FF win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.