· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Nacka Iliria vs Syrianska FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Nacka Iliria and 1.65 for Syrianska FC, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Nacka Iliria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacka Iliria win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nacka Iliria home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacka Iliria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Nacka Iliria and 1.65 for Syrianska FC, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Nacka Iliria
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syrianska FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haninge · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlslund · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fittja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rågsved · 1-0 (W)
Syrianska FC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Södra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farsta | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 2 | Sleipner | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 51 |
| 3 | Nyköping | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 46 |
| 4 | Forward | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 45 |
| 5 | Rågsved | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Haninge | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Smedby | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 36 |
| 8 | Fittja | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Örebro Syrianska | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 34 |
| 10 | Karlslund | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Nacka Iliria | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -16 | 30 |
| 12 | Syrianska FC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -17 | 26 |
| 13 | Lindo FF | 26 | 6 | 2 | 18 | -20 | 20 |
| 14 | Eker Örebro | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -43 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacka Iliria win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.