Prince Charles Park · Analysis updated 09:26 UTC
Nadi vs Ba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nadi and 2.39 for Ba, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Ba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ba win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ba away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 19% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Nadi and 2.39 for Ba, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.4%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Nadi
Ba
- 2025-09-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tavua · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-09-13T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Navua · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Lautoka · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-24T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Labasa · 5-0 (W)
- 2025-07-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Rewa · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Football League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ba win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.