Prince Charles Park · Analysis updated 00:12 UTC
Nadi vs Rewa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nadi and 2.87 for Rewa, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Rewa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rewa win
75.4% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 2.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rewa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rewa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 11% / 14% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Nadi and 2.87 for Rewa, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–38.1%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
Nadi
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Football League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rewa win, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.