Lawaqa Park · Analysis updated 04:10 UTC
Nadroga vs Rewa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nadroga and 2.45 for Rewa, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Rewa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rewa win
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nadroga home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rewa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rewa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 15% / 18% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Nadroga and 2.45 for Rewa, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.7%
- 0–37.0%
Recent form
Nadroga
- 2025-09-27T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Labasa · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-09-14T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Rewa · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasinu · 3-6 (L)
- 2025-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tavua · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-07-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Suva · 2-1 (W)
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Football League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rewa win, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.