· Analysis updated 06:27 UTC
Naft Gachsaran vs Mes Shahr-e Babak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Naft Gachsaran and 1.45 for Mes Shahr-e Babak, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Mes Shahr-e Babak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mes Shahr-e Babak win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naft Gachsaran home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mes Shahr-e Babak away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.2%
- 0–213.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Naft Gachsaran
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Novin Ahvaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 0-2 (L)
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- 2026-10-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Foolad FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Malavan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fajr Sepasi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · Naft Gachsaran 0-2 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2025-12-27T11:00:00.000Z · Naft Gachsaran 1-1 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2025-02-26T14:00:00.000Z · Naft Gachsaran 0-1 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2024-10-10T13:15:00.000Z · Naft Gachsaran 0-2 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2024-03-16T15:30:00.000Z · Naft Gachsaran 0-1 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
- 2023-10-14T14:30:00.000Z · Naft Gachsaran 1-0 Mes Shahr-e Babak (Azadegan League)
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mes Shahr-e Babak win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.