· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Naft Masjed Soleyman vs Niroye Zamini Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Naft Masjed Soleyman and 0.67 for Niroye Zamini, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Naft Masjed Soleyman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Naft Masjed Soleyman win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Niroye Zamini away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naft Masjed Soleyman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Naft Masjed Soleyman and 0.67 for Niroye Zamini, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Niroye Zamini
- 2026-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Kerman · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Saipa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fard Alborz · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Naft Masjed Soleyman win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.