Maysan Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Naft Maysan vs Al Talaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Naft Maysan and 1.25 for Al Talaba, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Al Talaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Talaba win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naft Maysan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Talaba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–29.6%
Recent form
Naft Maysan
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Diyala · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Erbil · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Karkh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Talaba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Minaa Basra · 1-1 (D)
Al Talaba
- 2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Shorta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jolan SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Naft Maysan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Karkh · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Zakho · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 2-0 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2026-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 0-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2025-10-31T17:30:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 1-2 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2025-04-28T16:30:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 1-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2025-02-08T11:30:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 1-0 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2024-05-18T13:00:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 0-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2023-11-04T18:30:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 4-0 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2023-04-09T18:30:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 2-1 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2022-10-25T14:15:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 1-0 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
- 2022-06-02T13:00:00.000Z · Naft Maysan 2-2 Al Talaba (Iraqi League)
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Talaba win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.