· Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
Naft vs Newroz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Naft and 0.74 for Newroz, a combined total of 1.44. That distribution gives Newroz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naft home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Newroz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 30% / 38% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Naft and 0.74 for Newroz, a combined 1.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.8%
- 0–117.5%
- 1–016.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
Naft
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Zakho · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Mosul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Karbala · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Karma · 0-3 (L)
Newroz
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Ghaz Al Shamal · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jolan SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mosul · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Naft Maysan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Duhok · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.