Gradski stadion · Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Naftagas vs Dubočica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Naftagas and 0.93 for Dubočica, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Naftagas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Naftagas win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naftagas home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubočica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naftagas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Naftagas and 0.93 for Dubočica, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Naftagas
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Ub · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Javor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 1-1 (D)
Dubočica
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · Naftagas 2-3 Dubočica (Prva Liga)
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Cacak | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | Javor | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 25 |
| 6 | Napredak | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | FK Vozdovac | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Loznica | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Metalac GM | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | Grafičar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Jedinstvo Ub | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Naftagas win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.