Gradski stadion · Analysis updated 10:35 UTC
Naftagas vs TSC Backa Topola Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Naftagas and 1.90 for TSC Backa Topola, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives TSC Backa Topola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TSC Backa Topola win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naftagas home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSC Backa Topola away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSC Backa Topola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Naftagas and 1.90 for TSC Backa Topola, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Naftagas
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo Ub · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Javor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 1-1 (D)
TSC Backa Topola
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TSC Backa Topola win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.