Atlant Stadium · Analysis updated 18:55 UTC
Naftan vs FC Minsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Naftan and 1.50 for FC Minsk, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives FC Minsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Minsk win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naftan home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Minsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Minsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Naftan and 1.50 for FC Minsk, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Naftan
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
FC Minsk
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 26 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Minsk win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.