Naftan vs ML Vitebsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Naftan and 2.30 for ML Vitebsk, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives ML Vitebsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

ML Vitebsk win

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 2.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Naftan home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ML Vitebsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 19% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Naftan and 2.30 for ML Vitebsk, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Naftan win16%

Draw19%

ML Vitebsk win66%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–29.8%
0–29.5%
1–18.5%
0–18.3%
1–37.5%

Recent form

Naftan

2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 0-3 (L)

ML Vitebsk

2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neman · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	13	5	7	16	44
5	Neman	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	9	6	10	-1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	7	7	11	-4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	25	5	8	12	-20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	3	10	12	-16	19
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is ML Vitebsk win, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.