Naftan vs Neman Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Naftan and 1.67 for Neman, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Neman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Neman to Win

54.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Naftan win21%

Draw24%

Neman win55%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

0–112.2%
1–111.5%
0–210.2%
1–29.6%
0–07.3%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Neman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Naftan and 1.67 for Neman, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Neman to Win is the headline pick at 55% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Naftan

Neman

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Minsk	14	10	3	1	14	33
2	ML Vitebsk	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	15	9	4	2	15	31
4	Dinamo Brest	17	9	3	5	14	30
5	FC Gomel	18	8	5	5	12	29
6	FC Minsk	18	8	4	6	2	28
7	FC Vitebsk	17	7	5	5	2	26
8	Neman	17	7	3	7	1	24
9	Torpedo Zhodino	16	6	5	5	9	23
10	Slavia Mozyr	17	5	6	6	-3	21
11	Arsenal	18	5	6	7	-9	21
12	Baranovichi	17	4	5	8	-12	17
13	FC Dnepr Mogilev	18	2	7	9	-13	13
14	Belshina	16	3	3	10	-17	12
15	Bate Borisov	15	1	7	7	-8	10
16	Naftan	17	2	4	11	-24	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.