Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.00 for Fagiano Okayama, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Nagoya Grampus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nagoya Grampus win

45.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nagoya Grampus home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fagiano Okayama away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nagoya Grampus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.00 for Fagiano Okayama, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Nagoya Grampus win46%

Draw27%

Fagiano Okayama win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.8%
1–112.8%
0–09.3%
0–19.3%
2–08.8%

Recent form

Nagoya Grampus

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 2-1 (W)

Fagiano Okayama

2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T04:55:00.000Z · H vs Vissel Kobe · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nagoya Grampus win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.