Toyota Stadium · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.22 for Kyoto Sanga, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Nagoya Grampus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nagoya Grampus win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nagoya Grampus home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kyoto Sanga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Nagoya Grampus
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 2-1 (W)
Kyoto Sanga
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fagiano Okayama · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T07:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2026-03-22T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2025-08-10T10:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2025-05-11T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2024-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 2-3 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2024-05-26T06:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2023-07-16T10:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2023-02-25T07:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2022-10-08T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2022-06-11T09:30:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Kyoto Sanga (J-League Cup)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Urawa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nagoya Grampus win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.