Toyota Stadium · Referee Atsushi Uemura, Japan · Analysis updated 16:51 UTC
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nagoya Grampus and 2.23 for Machida Zelvia, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Machida Zelvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Machida Zelvia win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nagoya Grampus home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Machida Zelvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 18% / 20% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 2.23 for Machida Zelvia, a combined 3.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–37.3%
Recent form
Nagoya Grampus
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerezo Osaka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 2-1 (W)
Machida Zelvia
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-3 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2026-06-06T06:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2026-05-30T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 2-2 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2025-11-30T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-3 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2025-03-02T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2024-07-06T09:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2024-03-02T05:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia (J1 League)
- 2017-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 4-3 Machida Zelvia (J2 League)
- 2017-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Machida Zelvia (J2 League)
- 2015-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia (Emperor Cup)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Machida Zelvia win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.