Nagykanizsai ULE vs MTK Budapest II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nagykanizsai ULE and 1.60 for MTK Budapest II, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives MTK Budapest II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

MTK Budapest II win

47.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nagykanizsai ULE home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MTK Budapest II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MTK Budapest II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Nagykanizsai ULE and 1.60 for MTK Budapest II, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nagykanizsai ULE win28%

Draw25%

MTK Budapest II win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–110.1%
1–29.4%
0–28.1%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Nagykanizsai ULE

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fehérvár FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Monori Se · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BVSC · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tiszakecske FC · 1-2 (L)

MTK Budapest II

2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pécsi MFC	12	11	1	0	30	34
2	Kaposvar	11	7	1	3	17	22
3	Ferencváros II	11	6	3	2	11	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	4	20
5	Iváncsa	11	6	0	5	3	18
6	Majosi	11	5	3	3	1	18
7	Budafoki LC	11	5	2	4	3	17
8	PTE-PEAC	11	4	4	3	1	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	5	0	5	6	15
10	Érdi VSE	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Siofok	11	4	2	5	3	14
12	Budaörs	11	3	3	5	-13	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	-4	7
14	Sárbogárd	11	1	2	8	-22	5
15	Szekszárd	11	0	0	11	-40	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is MTK Budapest II win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.