Nairobi City Stars vs Gucha Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Nairobi City Stars and 1.30 for Gucha Stars, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Gucha Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nairobi City Stars home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gucha Stars away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gucha Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Nairobi City Stars and 1.30 for Gucha Stars, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Nairobi City Stars win31%

Draw28%

Gucha Stars win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–112.2%
1–010.0%
0–09.4%
1–28.4%

Recent form

Nairobi City Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Darajani Gogo · 0-3 (L)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Talanta · 1-5 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs MCF · 0-0 (D)

Gucha Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Talanta · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortune Sacco · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Darajani Gogo · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vihiga United FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luanda Villa · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.