· Analysis updated 23:51 UTC
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nairobi United and 1.02 for Mara Sugar, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Nairobi United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nairobi United home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nairobi United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Nairobi United and 1.02 for Mara Sugar, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–012.0%
- 2–17.4%
Recent form
Nairobi United
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya Police · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 2-2 (D)
Mara Sugar
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulinzi Stars · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 3K · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Murang'a SEAL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs GOR Mahia · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Shabana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Murang'a SEAL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | 3K | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Nairobi United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Kenya Police | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.