Nairobi United vs Tusker Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nairobi United and 0.92 for Tusker, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Nairobi United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nairobi United win

46.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nairobi United home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nairobi United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Nairobi United and 0.92 for Tusker, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Nairobi United win47%

Draw28%

Tusker win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.9%
1–112.8%
0–010.3%
0–19.5%
2–09.4%

Recent form

Nairobi United

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabana · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCB · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya Police · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Posta Rangers FC · 2-2 (D)

Tusker

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulinzi Stars · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Wad Medani · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FKF Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	3	3	0	0	4	9
2	Mara Sugar	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	AFC Leopards	2	1	1	0	1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Shabana	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	KCB	3	1	1	1	0	4
7	Murang'a SEAL	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	3
9	Posta Rangers FC	3	1	0	2	-4	3
10	3K	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Nairobi United	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Bandari	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Mathare United	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Kenya Police	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Mombasa Elite	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nairobi United win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.