Naivas vs Kisumu All Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Naivas and 1.00 for Kisumu All Stars, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Naivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Naivas win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Naivas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kisumu All Stars away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Naivas win53%

Draw25%

Kisumu All Stars win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.7%
1–111.7%
2–09.6%
2–19.6%
0–07.1%

Recent form

Naivas

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihiga United FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mwatate United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-0 (W)

Kisumu All Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihiga United FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Darajani Gogo · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Migori Youth · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Soy United · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MOFA · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 4-0 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2025-12-12T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 0-1 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2025-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 0-1 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2025-02-02T07:00:00.000Z · Naivas 2-1 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2024-03-10T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 2-0 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2023-11-18T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 3-1 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2023-06-11T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 1-2 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2023-02-18T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 0-0 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2022-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · Naivas 0-1 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)
2021-12-05T00:00:00.000Z · Naivas 1-0 Kisumu All Stars (Super League)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Naivas win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.