Naivas vs Mombasa Elite Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Naivas and 0.75 for Mombasa Elite, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Naivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Naivas win

51.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Naivas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naivas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Naivas and 0.75 for Mombasa Elite, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Match result (1X2)

Naivas win51%

Draw28%

Mombasa Elite win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.5%
1–112.4%
0–012.2%
2–011.2%
0–19.2%

Recent form

Naivas

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihiga United FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mwatate United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-0 (W)

Mombasa Elite

2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 2-1 (W)
2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luanda Villa · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Naivas win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.