Naivas vs Vihiga United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Naivas and 1.00 for Vihiga United FC, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Naivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Naivas win

48.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Naivas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vihiga United FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naivas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Naivas and 1.00 for Vihiga United FC, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Naivas win49%

Draw26%

Vihiga United FC win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.3%
1–112.3%
2–09.2%
2–19.2%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Naivas

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihiga United FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mwatate United · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nzoia Sugar · 1-0 (W)

Vihiga United FC

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisumu All Stars · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luanda Villa · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naivas · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gucha Stars · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Darajani Gogo · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Naivas win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.