· Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Najran vs Al Rawdhah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Najran and 1.10 for Al Rawdhah, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Najran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Najran home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Rawdhah away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Najran to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 29% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Najran and 1.10 for Al Rawdhah, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Najran
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Najoom · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jubbah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-28T12:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Sahel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-24T12:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Jeel · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Sadd · 2-1 (W)
Al Rawdhah
- 2026-10-17T12:25:00.000Z · A vs Al-Washm · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taraji · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuwaiq · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-28T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Entesar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-24T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ain · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sharq | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Entesar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Al-Wajj | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Baish | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Kawkab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Hada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Rawdhah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Taraji | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Al-Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Qalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Rayan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Qous | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Shoalah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Arar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Najoom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Al Safa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Al Jubail | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 23 | Mudhar Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Afif | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Al Qwarah | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.