Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium · Analysis updated 09:07 UTC
Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.34 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nakhon Pathom home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Nakhon Pathom
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Uttaradit · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Uthai Thani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chanthaburi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Muangthong United · 1-0 (W)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
- 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muang Loei United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-11T11:00:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 3-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2024-08-18T12:00:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 1)
- 2021-11-24T11:00:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (FA Cup)
- 2014-07-23T11:00:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 2)
- 2014-03-26T12:00:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 0-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 2)
- 2013-09-07T10:00:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 3-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 2)
- 2013-03-17T11:30:00.000Z · Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Thai League 2)
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.