· Analysis updated 10:43 UTC
Nam Dinh vs Song Lam Nghe An Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nam Dinh and 1.25 for Song Lam Nghe An, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Nam Dinh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Song Lam Nghe An away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nam Dinh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Nam Dinh and 1.25 for Song Lam Nghe An, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Nam Dinh
Song Lam Nghe An
- 2026-10-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Lam Dong · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Ha Noi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pho Hien · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nam Dinh · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Phu Dong | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Ho Chi Minh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Da Nang | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.