· Analysis updated 12:25 UTC
Námestovo vs Podkonice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Námestovo and 1.36 for Podkonice, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Námestovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Námestovo win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Námestovo home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Podkonice away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Námestovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Námestovo and 1.36 for Podkonice, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.2%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–25.8%
Recent form
Námestovo
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Oravské Veselé · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Čadca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiľakovo · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs MFK Bytča · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rimavská Sobota · 2-1 (W)
Podkonice
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolný Kubín · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kysucké Nové Mesto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fomat Martin · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 29 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Fomat Martin | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Čadca | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 5 | Fiľakovo | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Oravské Veselé | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 | Podkonice | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Novohrad Lučenec | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Baník Kalinovo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 10 | Rimavská Sobota | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 13 | Sokol Medzibrod | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Námestovo win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.